The Influencing Factors of Escaped Radon from the Jiayuguan Fault Zone and Its Earthquake Reflecting Effect     

Wang Bo  Huang Fuqiong  Jian Chunlin 《中国地震研究》2011,25(3):358-369

The paper analyzes the radon data of nearly two decades on the Jiayuguan fault zone,discusses the main influencing factors,and puts forward the relationship between radon and air temperature,ground temperature and rainfall.We summarized the earthquake reflecting effect for ML≥5.0 about 400km within the Jiayuguan station,and reached the conclusion that it has better earthquake-reflecting ability before an earthquake,usually appearing as abnormal changes in sustained low value.By extracting the annual trend of radon in Jiayuguan station over many years,we discovered that the annual trend of radon has a close relationship with the seismic activity in surrounding areas,namely,if the annual variation of radon is larger,the seismic activity in surrounding areas is stronger;Otherwise,if the annual variation of radon is relatively stable,the seismic activity in the vicinity is weak.  相似文献   

Hydropower licensing and climate change: Insights from cooperative game theory   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Kaveh Madani 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(2):174-183

Cooperative game theory solutions can provide useful insights into how parties may use water and environmental resources and share any benefits of cooperation. Here, a method based on Nash and Nash-Harsanyi bargaining solutions is developed to explore the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing process, in which owners of non-federal hydropower projects in the United States have to negotiate their allowable operations, with other interest groups (mainly environmental). Linkage of games to expand the feasible solution range and the “strategic loss” concept are discussed and a FERC relicensing bargaining model is developed for studying the bargaining stage (third stage) of the relicensing process. Based on the suggested solution method, how the lack of incentive for cooperation results in long delay in FERC relicensing in practice is explained. Further, potential effects of climate change on the FERC relicensing are presented and how climate change may provide an incentive for cooperation among the parties to hasten the relicensing is discussed. An “adaptive FERC license” framework is proposed, based on cooperative game theory, to improve the performance and adaptability of the system to future changes with no cost to the FERC, in face of uncertainty about future hydrological and ecological conditions.  相似文献   

Dynamic p-enrichment schemes for multicomponent reactive flows     

C. Michoski  C. MirabitoC. Dawson  D. WirasaetE.J. Kubatko  J.J. Westerink 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(12):1666-1680

We present a family of p-enrichment schemes. These schemes may be separated into two basic classes: the first, called fixed tolerance schemes, rely on setting global scalar tolerances on the local regularity of the solution, and the second, called dioristic schemes, rely on time-evolving bounds on the local variation in the solution. Each class of p-enrichment scheme is further divided into two basic types. The first type (the Type I schemes) enrich along lines of maximal variation, striving to enhance stable solutions in “areas of highest interest.” The second type (the Type II schemes) enrich along lines of maximal regularity in order to maximize the stability of the enrichment process. Each of these schemes are tested on three model systems. The first is an academic exact system where basic analysis is easily performed. Then we discuss a pair of application model problems arising in coastal hydrology. The first being a contaminant transport model, which addresses a declinature problem for a contaminant plume with respect to a bay inlet setting. And the second, a multicomponent chemically reactive flow model of estuary eutrophication arising in the Gulf of Mexico.  相似文献   

Gibson地基波阻板隔振分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

孙雨明  李伟  高广运 《地震工程学报》2011,33(1):40-45

采用薄层法层状半空间基本解答作为格林函数的边界元法,对Gibson地基三维波阻板(WIB)隔振设计进行了详细的参数分析.结果表明Gibson地基内采用WIB隔振有较好的隔振效果;应保证WIB具有合理的宽度和较小的埋深;增加WIB的厚度和模量是提高隔振效果的最有效的两种措施;此外地基竖向模量变化对WIB隔振效果也具有一定...  相似文献   

基于MATLAB神经网络方法的多层砖房震害预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

姜伟  马令勇  刘功良 《地震工程学报》2011,33(2):155-158

提出利用MATLAB人工神经网络工具箱建立基于贝叶斯正则算法的BP神经网络模型,以地震区多层砖房震害调查数据为因子的震害预测方法.神经网络模型输入震害因子包括建筑的层数、施工质量、房屋整体性等,输出值为建筑物在地震作用下的破坏程度.结果表明,本方法可以对多层砖房的震害样本进行预测并达到较理想的效果.  相似文献   

横观各向同性饱和两相介质动力反应计算分析     

翟威  李亮  杜修力 《地震工程学报》2011,33(Z1)

针对横观各向同性饱和两相介质的弹性波动方程组,应用基于显式逐步积分计算格式的时域显式有限元方法对其在输入地震波作用下的动力反应进行计算和分析,并将计算结果与完全各向同性饱和两相介质的计算结果进行对比研究。结果显示横观各向同性饱和两相介质与完全各向同性饱和两相介质的动力反应具有较为显著的差异。同时表明时域显式有限元方法是进行横观各向同性饱和两相介质动力反应计算分析的一种有效方法。  相似文献   

首都圈跨断层流动形变观测资料映震能力及场地监测能力分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陆明勇  黄宝森  刘天海  邵永新  寇建新  房宗绯  张金城  于海生 《地震》2011,31(3):121-134

首都圈最早建立跨断层流动形变监测网始于20世纪60年代末,主要布设在北京周围广大地区,覆盖了主要活动断裂带.在过去的40多年里,首都圈地区及附近发生了多次强震,如1976年唐山7.8级、1989年大同6.1级和1998年张北6.2级地震等.本文首先对首都圈地区的跨断层流动形变观测资料进行了映震能力分析,然后探讨了监测场...  相似文献   

高七井水温映震规律浅析     

鲜述东  刘子哲  董艳涛  刘丽  杨昆  韩艳  马莉 《内陆地震》2011,(4):349-353

通过对高七井水温多年资料的整理,在总结以往震例的基础上,分析水温异常与地震预报的对应规律,对高七井水温映震效能进行初步探讨.高七井水温异常为阶跃上升型,异常形态具有继承性,水温异常对地震短临预报具有指导意义.  相似文献   

山西地震应急评估系统模型本地化研究     

杨斌  程紫燕  郑树平 《山西地震》2011,(2):42-45,48

地震发生时,地震应急指挥技术系统在应急基础数据库的支持下,可以迅速判断地震的规模、影响范围、人员伤亡、经济损失等情况。文章对影响计算结果的破坏矩阵、影响场模型等进行了分析,并分别与历史地震震后实际的灾害损失情况进行对比,以找到适合山西地区的本地化模型参数,为地震应急指挥提供科学的参考依据。  相似文献   

江苏及邻区震群活动特征分析   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

黄耘  孙业君  杨云  叶碧文 《中国地震》2011,27(1):72-82

系统地整理研究了江苏及其邻近地区36次小震群活动,总结了震群活动的参数特征,探讨了震群活动与大震的关系,分析检验了前兆震群类型的判定指标.江苏地区震群活动分布集中,强度以ML2.0～3.9地震为主,震群序列总频次在30次以下居多,持续时间在15天以内的震群占总数的55％;震群序列中地震总频次和震群持续时间与震群的最大震级之间不成正比;研究区78％震群发生后对应M4.6以上中强地震,其中500km范围内时间间隔在1年内的占对应地震总数的57％,具有一定的中短期地震预测指示意义;震群与未来中强地震的距离较为离散,但尚无在原地发生大地震的震例.震群强度大小与未来中强地震的对应率高低和对应的地震强度大小没有明显的相关关系,震群频次的多少与其后发生地震的对应率高低也没有明显的相关关系.采用U-p组合或者全组合判定震群类型的效果相对较好,检验正确率约占总数的50％,但总体而言效果并不十分有效,需要参考其它方法和手段综合判定.  相似文献